At the onset of the 2023 NFL season is a new normal. Which is fitting because everything about 2023 fits that status. A year like no other is likely to spark NFL betting dynamics far different than before. Of course, this season of change begins with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Their long-anticipated split is finally official. Debate continues to rage about who was most responsible for the Patriots dynasty. Both would love to show the other up by winning without the other. But can they?
Of course, Brady’s arrival to the Buccaneers is heralded. Tampa Bay’s history is filled with considerable ineptitude. Most recently the Bucs have only one winning season since 2010. Brady was signed to bust the franchise through. New England’s history of glory is the opposite side of that coin. But the Patriots have eight players already opted out. And uncertainty at the quarterback position. New England also faces a far more challenging AFC East.
Learn to Think of NFL Teams as Stocks When Gambling
At the onset of the 2023 season is the raging battle that NFL handicappers must sort out. Public perception vs. actual reality. NFL teams are like stocks on the market. Gamblers have to assess actual capability vs. the price. Oddsmakers like CashBet.ag sportsbook have to keep tabs on how the betting public views teams. “Branding” is a popular term these days. But it’s a reality of NFL wagering.
Comparable to the rest of the league the Bucs and Dolphins are braded as losers. That is based on recent seasons. And can often spark hidden value. To illustrate Miami went 5-11 straight up in 2019. But the Dolphins were 9-7 against the spread. Oddsmakers had to sweeten the pot to draw Betting on NFL action Miami’s way. That value is reflected in profits exceeding ability.
Let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks know about such perceptions. From this point we will asses perception vs. reality to realize true betting value. Always remember that the house wants equal action bet on both sides. This allows them to collect their 10-percent juice regardless of who wins. Sportsbooks have to set a price that will attract betting action to each side. Which means the price you see may not be based entirely on merits. Correlate the ignorant phrase “What Vegas thinks.” Actually, the odds are priced on what Vegas thinks that YOU think!
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Public Expects Tampa Bay to Buc Up for 2023
At the beginning we see Pro football betting odds on the Buccaneers far different than the past. Tampa Bay is +1353 to win the Super Bowl and +610 to win the NFC. NFC South odds have the Bucs as second choice at +175. Also, factoring is the 2023-win total posted of 9.5. All of these numbers are quite unusual to see on Tampa Bay. Brady is the reason why. Supplementing the optimism is that the Bucs are far more than Brady. At least on paper.
Tom Brady is defying gravity at the age of 42. Of great concern has been his steady decline in production the past two seasons. Part of that is based on New England’s lack of supporting cast. Perhaps even most of it. For this purpose, the vastly superior Tampa Bay firepower could rejuvenate Brady. Starting with a pair of 1,000-yard receivers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are nuclear weapons compared to anything the Patriots have. Tight ends O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, and Rob Gronkowski add to the arsenal. Counter to all that is a questionable offensive line.
Head coach Bruce Arians is another NFL gambling asset. As a matter of fact, Arians is a major reason for Brady defecting to Tampa Bay. Few coaches can match Arian’s reputation for quarterback coaching.
Of great concern is a defense that has a decent but thin front line. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles did produce the NFL’s top run defense in 2019. Lack of depth on the defensive line leaves the Buccaneers vulnerable. Overall, the starting front seven is potentially one of the best in football. But last year’s pass defense must significantly improve. Antoine Winfield Jr. arrives highly acclaimed from the draft. He could emerge as defensive backfield kingpin.
Far Lower Expectations for Dolphins Could Bring Hidden Wagering Value
Starting with a win total of six the Dolphins face a doubting public. Miami is a +14500-football betting longshot to win the Super Bowl. Further, the Fish are +7500 to win the AFC. The biggest insult is Miami being the last pick of the AFC East at +1100. Optimism comes with a 5-4 record in their final nine games of 2019. Which came after an 0-7 start. More emphatically the arrival of first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa changes the brand.
Fans will be paying far more attention to the Dolphins. As was previously noted Miami was a highly profitable team vs. the spread. Fan Boy squares in the betting public still aren’t comfortable with them. Which forces oddsmakers to set enticing prices for action. Sharps found the Dolphins to be a secret gem. Due to Tua’s arrival that factor may be altered somewhat.
Defensively the Dolphins were utterly dreadful. Miami ranked dead last for points allowed. As a consequence, there is the belief that rock bottom has been hit. Namely the arrival of shutdown corner Byron Jones lends credibility to the unit. Fellow corner Xavien Howard will be eternally grateful for the balance. Still the defensive unit is outmanned compared to most. Not withstanding that is an offense that may be good enough to somewhat cover for it.
More emphatically the Dolphins could profit from an AFC East in transition. New England’s dynasty is finished. Buffalo is a playoff team with offensive flaws. And the hapless Jets continue to flounder.
Contrarian Thought Always Wise in NFL Betting
Summing up the Buccaneers will be better. By reason of the massive hype they may also be overpriced. Sharps are not going to mindlessly load up on Tampa Bay. Squares would be wise to pause before going all-in. By contrast the Dolphins are still seen as rebuilding. Miami could bring more of their hidden value from 2023.